Covid-19 Unmasked: The News, The Science, And Common Sense

The proposed book will give a nontechnical account of scientific research that informs the predictions of scientists regarding the current Covid-19 epidemic and recommendations for an effective strategy for controlling the outbreak. While there are plenty of snippets of such information in the news, they are often presented in a disjointed manner and laden with scientific jargon. This, together with the unfortunate politicization of the public discourse about our response to the outbreak is making the deluge of data and information about the pandemic that we daily see and hear in the media confusing rather than illuminating for many concerned citizens with a limited scientific background. This volume aims at empowering the readers to understand how science operates, what its role is in the decision-making process, and how scientists conceptualize the process of disease transmission. It will show the rationale behind the overall strategy proposed by the CDC and behind individual recommended control measures, such as social distancing and wearing masks. The focus will be on the construction of epidemiological models in Part II and on interpreting actual data in Part III. For completeness, some biological background information and issues such as vaccine development will be discussed in Part I. The treatment of the science is kept at a level that is as elementary and free of excessive jargon as is possible without sacrificing scientific integrity. While Parts II and III are quantitative in nature, the mathematical tools are entirely restricted to the pre-calculus level. The material will be presented in the form of conversations between four fictitious students who bring different attitudes, perspectives, and levels of scientific preparation to the table. Under the guidance of Alice, who is assumed to be a student of epidemiology, they together work out the basic scientific issues surrounding the pandemic and our response to it. While putting some of the current controversies on the stage, their dialogues remain constructive and respectful throughout. While their attitudes and primary concerns differ, the dialogues focus entirely on understanding the science and its role in the decision-making process. There are dependencies between some of these conversations that naturally form a sequence, especially in Part II. However, most of them are independent of each other and can be read in any order that best fits the reader's interests.